Global air cargo demand increased 3.9% year on year in July 2026, with airlines in Africa recording the weakest regional growth, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
African carriers saw cargo demand rise just 1.1%, while their capacity expanded 4.1% compared with July 2025, leaving capacity growth well ahead of demand.
Worldwide demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK), grew 3.9%, while available capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK), increased 1.7%. International cargo demand rose 4.7%.
“Air cargo demand grew 3.9% year-on-year in July. While all regions recorded growth, airlines in Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America accounted for more than 90% of the overall increase,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist.
She noted that dedicated freighters increased their market share as belly-hold cargo traffic declined, potentially reflecting stronger demand for larger or specialised shipments and the greater operational flexibility offered by freighter aircraft.
Thomsen said the outlook remains broadly positive, supported by manufacturing activity, export orders and global trade, but warned that higher fuel prices, geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding tariffs could pose challenges.
Africa-Asia cargo trade weakens
Despite the overall increase in African airlines’ cargo demand, trade between Africa and Asia deteriorated sharply in July.
The Africa-Asia trade lane contracted 14.7% year on year, marking its second consecutive monthly decline. The route represented 1.3% of global industry market share based on full-year 2025 CTKs.
Other trade corridors linked to the Gulf also recorded significant declines. Cargo traffic between Europe and the Middle East fell 16.1%, while the Middle East-Asia market dropped 14.1%.
In contrast, the Asia-North America corridor expanded 9.2%, extending its growth streak to six consecutive months. Intra-Asian cargo demand increased 6.1%, marking the lane’s 33rd consecutive month of growth.
Fuel prices emerge as a growing concern
Air cargo conditions remained supported by broader economic activity, although rising fuel prices and geopolitical risks could create additional pressure.
Global trade grew 7.5% year on year, while manufacturing activity continued to support cargo demand despite a modest slowdown in June. Export orders also reached their strongest level in three months.
The Global Manufacturing Output Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined 0.3 points to 52.7, while the New Export Orders Index climbed to 50.0.
Jet fuel prices, meanwhile, increased 12.2% month on month in July and were 56.9% higher than a year earlier.
North America leads regional growth
North American airlines posted the strongest regional increase in cargo demand, with growth of 4.8% year on year.
European carriers followed with 4.4%, while airlines in the Asia-Pacific and Latin America and Caribbean regions each recorded 4.1% growth.
Middle Eastern carriers reported a 1.7% increase, while African airlines ranked last with 1.1%.
Capacity growth varied considerably across regions. Latin American and Caribbean carriers expanded capacity by 7.0%, followed by African airlines at 4.1%, Middle Eastern carriers at 4.0%, Asia-Pacific carriers at 3.0% and European airlines at 1.3%.
North American carriers were the only regional group to reduce capacity, cutting available cargo capacity by 1.5% year on year.
IATA said the global air cargo outlook remains generally positive, supported by manufacturing, export orders and continued growth in global trade. However, fuel costs, geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainty remain key risks for the sector.
Source: ZAWYA