The Middle East will need more than 3,800 new passenger aircraft over the next 20 years, according to Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast (GMF).
The forecast projects demand for 2,160 single-aisle and 1,670 widebody aircraft by 2045, as rising air travel, urbanisation and major investments continue to strengthen the region’s role as a global aviation hub.
Passenger traffic to, from and within the Middle East is expected to increase at an annual compound growth rate of 4.7% through 2045, more than doubling over the forecast period.
Airbus said the outlook remains strong despite ongoing disruption across the aviation industry. Existing backlogs for large single-aisle aircraft in the region already account for 45% of projected total demand over the next two decades.
Gabriel Semelas, President of Airbus Africa and Middle East, said regional airlines had demonstrated operational resilience despite geopolitical volatility. He attributed future growth to population expansion, rising prosperity and large-scale infrastructure investment, which are prompting carriers to expand and modernise their fleets.
The forecast points to several factors supporting demand. Urbanisation is expected to reach 55% of the region’s population, while the middle class is projected to expand by another 240 million people to reach 620 million.
Air travel frequency is also expected to rise significantly. In Saudi Arabia, trips per person are forecast to increase from 1.6 annually in 2025 to 4.0 by 2045. In the United Arab Emirates, the figure is projected to rise from 3.1 to 6.5 trips per person over the same period.
Large-scale investments in airlines, regional giga-projects and airport infrastructure are also reshaping the region’s aviation landscape. Airbus said these developments are creating new connectivity hubs and supporting growth across the wider aviation ecosystem.
Fleet modernisation is expected to accelerate as well. By 2035, new-generation aircraft are forecast to account for 97% of the Middle Eastern fleet, compared with 45% in 2025. Airbus said the shift will improve fuel efficiency and operational performance while helping reduce emissions.
The Middle East is also expected to become increasingly significant in the development of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). Sovereign investment strategies and ambitious aviation programmes are positioning airlines and other industry stakeholders in the region to become future hubs for SAF production, supporting the aviation sector’s longer-term sustainability objectives.
Source: Oman Daily Observer