United Airlines has reduced its profit forecast for 2026 as higher fuel expenses weigh on its financial outlook, highlighting the challenges facing the aviation industry despite continued demand for air travel.
The US carrier said Tuesday it expects adjusted earnings of between $0.50 and $1.50 per share in the fourth quarter, below market expectations. The forecast implies full-year adjusted earnings of no more than $7.22 per share, a significant reduction from the company's July projection of $9 to $11 per share.
Fuel costs are expected to rise further in the final three months of the year. United anticipates paying an average of $4.80 per gallon, compared with $3.90 in the third quarter, representing an increase of approximately 23%.
Higher fuel prices have added billions of dollars to airline operating expenses this year, putting pressure on margins and contributing to higher ticket prices. Although passenger demand has remained resilient, increased fares have not been sufficient to fully offset the impact of rising costs on United's earnings outlook.
Third-quarter revenue approaches $18 billion
United reported adjusted earnings of $2.54 per share for the third quarter, slightly below expectations.
Revenue climbed 17.4% year-on-year to $17.88 billion for the three months ended September 30, narrowly missing the market estimate of $17.9 billion.
Net income increased 8.5% to $1.03 billion, equivalent to $3.14 per share. In the same period a year earlier, the airline recorded net income of $949 million, or $2.90 per share.
The results reflected continued strength in passenger traffic and pricing. United said passenger numbers increased by more than 2% compared with the third quarter of 2025.
Domestic passenger unit revenue rose 14.5%, while international passenger unit revenue increased 17.4%. These gains indicate that higher fares contributed to revenue growth across both markets.
Fuel expenses challenge airline profitability
United's revised outlook highlights the growing pressure on airlines as operating costs rise alongside sustained demand for travel.
The carrier's financial performance benefited from stronger revenue and higher passenger yields during the third quarter. However, the expected increase in fuel prices could offset some of those gains in the final quarter.
The lower earnings forecast underscores the difficulty airlines face in maintaining profitability when higher operating expenses persist, even as travellers continue booking flights at increased prices.
Source: Anadolu Agency