Airlines in the Middle East recorded a steep decline in passenger demand in March, as ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran forced widespread airspace closures across the region. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), demand among Middle Eastern carriers fell by 60.8% compared with the same period a year earlier.
The disruption led to the closure of most regional airspace, with limited exceptions over the Sultanate of Oman and Saudi Arabia’s western corridor. Airline capacity in the region also contracted significantly, dropping 56.9% year-on-year, while the load factor stood at 67.8%.
Globally, however, the aviation sector maintained modest growth. Total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), increased by 2.1% compared to March 2025, despite the Middle East downturn. Capacity, calculated in available seat kilometers (ASK), declined by 1.7% year-on-year, while the global load factor rose to 83.6%, up 3.1 percentage points.
International traffic showed a slight contraction, with demand dipping by 0.6% year-on-year. Capacity for international routes fell by 6.2%, while the load factor reached 84.1%. The overall decline in international travel was largely driven by the sharp contraction among Middle Eastern airlines.
Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA, said the sector had demonstrated resilience despite the disruption. He noted that, excluding the Middle East, global demand grew by around 8%, highlighting stronger performance in other regions.
Walsh also raised concerns over jet fuel supply and pricing. He warned that regions heavily reliant on Gulf fuel exports, particularly Asia and Europe, could face shortages in the coming months. Rising fuel costs are increasingly being reflected in ticket prices, though demand and forward bookings have so far remained stable. He added that while the summer travel season is expected to remain busy, continued volatility could test airline resilience. Regulators, he suggested, should consider offering airlines flexibility on slot allocations given the ongoing constraints on airspace and potential fuel supply challenges.
Data from the National Center for Statistics and Information (NCSI) indicates that the impact has also been felt in Oman. Passenger traffic at Muscat International Airport declined steadily in early 2026, with international arrivals falling to 728,588 in March, down from 939,921 in February and 1.18 million in January.
Overall, passenger numbers for the first quarter of 2026 dropped by 2.4% to 2.86 million. Flight activity also slowed, with 5,515 flights recorded in March.
Source: ZAWYA