European aircraft manufacturer Airbus has projected that global air travel will continue its long-term expansion, with annual passenger numbers expected to reach approximately 10 billion by 2045.
In its latest global market outlook released on Wednesday, Airbus forecast average yearly air traffic growth of 3.9% over the next two decades, a trend that would result in passenger volumes doubling compared with current levels. The projection aligns with similar forecasts previously published by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
To meet rising demand, Airbus estimates that airlines worldwide will require more than 42,000 new aircraft by 2045. Of these, around 22,240 aircraft will be needed to support market growth, while 19,820 jets will replace aging fleets currently in service.
The aircraft manufacturer also expects wide-body aircraft to account for roughly 19% of future deliveries, reflecting continued demand for long-haul international travel.
Airbus identified urbanization, sustained economic development, and the expansion of middle-class populations as the primary factors driving future growth in air transportation.
The company anticipates that aviation networks will become increasingly decentralized, with growth concentrated not only in major metropolitan centers but also in smaller and medium-sized cities. According to Airbus, this trend is expected to create more direct connections between regional destinations, reducing reliance on traditional hub airports.
As a result, fuel-efficient narrow-body aircraft designed for short- and medium-haul routes are expected to remain the backbone of airline fleet expansion. Airbus noted that market demand is reflected in its current order backlog, which exceeds 9,000 aircraft.
Source: QCAA