Air New Zealand warned on Wednesday that it expects to post a first-half loss, citing weak domestic demand, soft U.S.-bound bookings, and rising operational costs, including higher engine leasing expenses.
The carrier said it no longer anticipates the 2%–3% revenue growth projected in August, with forward bookings showing limited momentum. It now forecasts a pre-tax loss of between NZ$30 million ($17.2 million) and NZ$55 million for the six months ending December 31.
Previously, Air New Zealand had expected first-half results to be roughly in line with the NZ$34 million pre-tax profit it reported in the second half of the last financial year. Following the announcement, the airline’s shares fell 1.7% to NZ$0.585 in early trading.
“The weak economic backdrop in New Zealand is weighing on revenue, and persistent engine issues are a material cost drag,” said Angus Hewitt, equity analyst at Morningstar. “Air New Zealand’s fortunes should improve as engine problems ease, new capacity is added, and economic conditions strengthen. We expect a material uptick in profitability from the second half and beyond.”
The airline’s performance continues to be affected by a small domestic market and intense competition from Australian rivals Qantas Airways and Virgin Australia. Weaker-than-expected revenue is projected to have a negative NZ$50 million impact in the first half, Air New Zealand said.
Operational challenges have also mounted due to delayed aircraft deliveries and grounded jets. Between nine and 11 aircraft have been out of service at various times since the start of the 2026 financial year because of ongoing engine issues.
The airline now expects engine lease expenses to be about NZ$20 million higher after accounting for end-of-lease obligations on two short-term leased aircraft that were previously excluded from its forecast.
Additionally, Air New Zealand’s obligations under the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) have risen by around NZ$10 million since August, adding further pressure to fuel and environmental compliance costs.
Persistent global supply chain disruptions and heightened maintenance requirements on Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce engines continue to weigh on operations. The 2025 financial year marked Air New Zealand’s first full year impacted by these additional maintenance demands.
Despite the current setbacks, analysts expect the airline’s outlook to improve in the latter half of the year as fleet capacity recovers, travel demand rebounds, and cost pressures ease.
-KS